Caribbean economies seem to be big trouble

robblaten

New member
The economies of the Eastern Caribbean won't recover in the foreseeable future. It's the new normal.
I disagree. St. Vincent just announced 2.5 percent projected growth for this year, DESPITE the Christmas storm.

The OECS are well managed and have the advantage of currency stability. I think both they are Barbados have a bright future.
 

Inquistive

New member
I disagree. St. Vincent just announced 2.5 percent projected growth for this year, DESPITE the Christmas storm.

The OECS are well managed and have the advantage of currency stability. I think both they are Barbados have a bright future.
2.5 growth from what?

Barbados just laid off 3000 government workers. The economic outlook is dismal. I've read the central bank projections. They aren't looking good.
 

biyatchisback

Registered User
Some of the Trinis here are disappointing me with their counter arguments. I don't mind someone being nationalistic and self-confident but it must be substantiated with facts which I find is what Roblatten is doing. If their tourism model is working for them (it clearly does) then good for them. Trinidad has conquered the other islands with our music and companies (Bahamas has imported unknowingly our limbo dancing. Yes, limbo originated in Trinidad go look it up) so we wouldn't die without them. They may be condescending but they have a standard of living to back it up. I can't stand islanders sounding like they are superior but when we go to their countries we don't find it to be much. The trinis that I know who have been to the Bahamas testify that their living standard is high so hence I understand their mentality. They don't realy need the other islands.
Preach! Could not agree more. Why on earth would/should Bahamas feel the need to link up with the other islands. Truth hurts *shrug*
I can't handle out of touch people who don't even live in the Caribbean making pronouncements on what is right for the region. It's interesting to note that me, yourself and robblaten all live in the region and all feel the same.
 

robblaten

New member
2.5 growth from what?

Barbados just laid off 3000 government workers. The economic outlook is dismal. I've read the central bank projections. They aren't looking good.
I agree Bim has problems in the medium term, but still think its long term outlook is good.

As for SVG, even in the medium term prospects are improving. I must grudgingly credit the Argyl Airport project with presaging good prospects, having once criticised the project as wasteful.
 

robblaten

New member
Tourism is down, and the domestic workforce can't make up the difference. You can't blame the leaders though. This is only a result of the global economy.
You are right about the global economy being to blame. But I would not be so fast to count out Barbados. Its basic fundamentals (good education, open, services oriented economy etc.) are still good characteristics in today's world.
 

Inquistive

New member
You are right about the global economy being to blame. But I would not be so fast to count out Barbados. Its basic fundamentals (good education, open, services oriented economy etc.) are still good characteristics in today's world.
It's dwindling though.

Have you visited lately? The standard of living on the island has dropped significantly.
 

robblaten

New member
It's dwindling though.

Have you visited lately? The standard of living on the island has dropped significantly.
I spent a lot of time their in the 80's when my uncle headed up Scotiabank there.

My next time there was 2001 and the third and last time 2004. To be honest, I did not note that much change there over all those years, except the south coast and holetown area was a bit more developed. In terms of living standards, I saw no diminution.

What impressed me is that they have free university education, while our own government does not. Good priorities, which I would hate to see proved wrong by economic realities.
 

dedetriniking

Registered User
I spent a lot of time their in the 80's when my uncle headed up Scotiabank there.

My next time there was 2001 and the third and last time 2004. To be honest, I did not note that much change there over all those years, except the south coast and holetown area was a bit more developed. In terms of living standards, I saw no diminution.

What impressed me is that they have free university education, while our own government does not. Good priorities, which I would hate to see proved wrong by economic realities.
Its one thing to have free tertiary education but you must find avenues to capitalize on the education that free educatiion you are providing..i.e. find a way to diversify your economy and put all that brain power to work.
 

AROUCA-TRINI

New member
Most Caribbean economies end 2013 with single digit inflation

Saturday, January 11 2014 @ 12:00 AM AST

Contributed by: AleemKhan

Views: 70
http://news.co.tt/public_html/images/articles/20140107135224685_1.png


The Dominican Republic— Rates steady on disinflation

The Central Bank decided in November 2013 to leave the policy rate un- changed at 6.25%, based on October 2013 y-o-y inflation coming in at 4.74%, down from a recent peak of 5.67% in July 2013, and well within the 4-6% tar- get. The Central Bank expects growth to exceed 3% in 2013, which is roughly on par with 2012. Thus far, H1 2013 growth came in at 1.6% y-o-y, accelerat- ing to 5.5% y-o-y in Q3.

Jamaica—USD30.8 million IMF disbursement secured

In December 2013, the IMF completed its second review of Jamaica’s eco- nomic performance, and authorized the disbursement of USD30.8 million, brining total disbursements under the current arrangement to USD272.2 mil- lion. The IMF stated that overall program implementation continues to be strong, all criteria have been met, and that there are “tentative signs of a gradual economic recovery”. The IMF staff report projected growth for FY2013/14 is at just under 1%, based on stronger performance in the tourism, mining and agricultural sectors. Growth in Q3 2013 is estimated at 0.6% y-o-y, up from y-o-y contractions of 1.2% and 0.1% in Q1 and Q2 respectively. Unem- ployment fell from 16.3% in April 2013 to 15.4% in July. Based on the JMD depreciation pass-through effect on prices, inflation reached 10.3% y-o-y in October 2013. The exchange rate has depreciated by roughly 19% between June 2012 and November 2013 according to the IMF, and has improved com- petitiveness and tempered the decline in reserves. As at December 30th 2013, the exchange rate stood at JMD106.32 to USD1.00, and import cover stood at 11 weeks at the end of November, according to the Bank of Jamaica.

Suriname—Disinflation continues and reserves decline

Down from a recent peak of 3.6% y-o-y in June 2013, inflation has dropped to an estimated 0.3% in November. International reserves remain above the pre- cautionary benchmark of three months, but continue to decline steadily, dropping to USD725.8 million in November 2013. A recent IMF report found that the correlation between growth, and mining sector output and prices, is surprisingly low in Suriname. The IMF estimates that growth around 5.5% was recorded in the first five months of 2013.

Trinidad and Tobago— USD550MM 4.375% 2023 bond

The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy report showed revised GDP estimates which suggest that the economy grew by 1.2% y-o-y in 2012, and contracted by 0.5% in Q3 2013 q-o-q, based on maintenance related planned shutdowns in the energy sector. The Central Bank expects growth around 1.2% y-o-y in Q4 2013, bringing overall 2013 growth “in the vicinity of 1.5%”, strengthening further to around 2.5% in 2014. Trinidad and Tobago’s first USD denominated sovereign bond issue since 2007 was almost ten times oversubscribed, raising USD550 million. S&P affirmed T&T’s sovereign credit rating at ‘A’ with a sta- ble outlook, based on a return to normal levels of energy sector output, and a growth projection of 2.6% in 2014. S&P estimates that the energy sector accounted for 44% of GDP and 81% of merchandise exports in 2012.

SOURCE: RBC Caribbean Economic Report, December 2013
 

AROUCA-TRINI

New member
That unemployment rate for T&T (4.9%) looks fishy though we do have a labour shortage in certain sectors. We need to get our growth rate up though. Note the higher GDP per capita in the Bahamas that is concomitant with high unemployment. Even the Cayman Islands which have a super high GDP per capita has a higher rate of unemployment. Interesting.
 

dedetriniking

Registered User
I see the layoffs have started in barbados.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/RuhZ-B3DAew?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 

robblaten

New member
I see the layoffs have started in barbados.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/RuhZ-B3DAew?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
This sucks for Bim! But I think the govt. are dead wrong and should never have given in to the IMF's pressure. How can you expect to pull yourself out of a bad fiscal situation by letting to 3,000 taxpayers??? It is madness.

Bim should instead have concentrating on growing its economy (and the world conditions are again good for doing this) and told the IMF to go suck on a lemon.

Too many governments in our region are ready and willing to listen to some dumb foreign agency, rather than just applying common sense to national experience. Huge job cuts have never done anything other than deepen recessions.

Anyway, either way Barbados will be back. They will never devalue their dollar and, so long as they remain fanatical on that point things will never sink beneath a certain level.
 

robblaten

New member
People love to talk down regional growth prospects. I am fairly certain that most Caribbean economies will experience considerable growth this year.
 
Top